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Cenbank keeps printing money amid inflation worries

Infographic: TBS

Infographic: TBS

The central bank continues to utilise a potentially inflation-fuelling tool – lending money to the government by printing it – as Bangladesh continues to grapple with high inflationary pressure, the extent of which has been declining in many countries.

The latest data from the Bangladesh Bank reveals that in the first 18 days of July, the central bank injected Tk10,800 crore into circulation to meet the government’s expenditure needs. This surge in high-powered money comes in response to a revenue shortfall – around Tk45,000 crore – from the target and lower-than-expected foreign funds.

Significant increase in money injection

Comparing this year’s data with that of the immediate past fiscal year, it becomes evident that the amount of money injection has increased significantly. In FY23, the government borrowed Tk1,24,122 crore from the banking system, with Tk78,140 crore provided by the central bank, averaging Tk6,500 crore per month. Even in June, the last month of FY23, the central bank provided the government with Tk6,529 crore.

In contrast, during the first 18 days of the current fiscal year, the central bank has already provided Tk6,074 crore through 91-day and 364-day Treasury Bills, and an additional Tk4,715 crore through 2, 5, and 10-Year Treasury Bonds.

This process of devolving undertaken by the Bangladesh Bank involves the central bank buying treasury bills and bonds from the government instead of raising funds from commercial banks by selling treasury bills and bonds.

In FY24, the government planned to borrow Tk1,32,395 crore from the banking sector and Tk1,02,490 crore from external sources. If the government borrows from the central bank by devolvement, it means an injection of fresh money into the economy.

Crucial for cenbank to monitor financial mechanism

Economists said it is crucial for the central bank to monitor and manage these financial mechanisms carefully to mitigate the risk of exacerbating inflationary pressures in the economy.

Commenting on the central bank’s devolvement strategy, Ahsan H Mansur, the executive director of the Policy Research Institute, said it aims to keep the interest rate of treasury bills down. He also pointed out that the new landing rate formula acts as a cap, as the base rate of treasury bills is not market-based.

According to a senior official from the central bank, the Six Months Moving Average interest rate of 182-day Treasury bills (SMART) is now used as the lending rate. Also, the central bank will announce a new lending rate every month starting in July by adding a maximum of 3% with SMART.

The Bangladesh Bank aims to maintain a neutral determination process for SMART. As a result, devolvement is not being done for the 182-day Treasury Bill in July, the official said.

The official further explained that due to the immaturity of the market for the country’s bills and bonds, leaving the determination of interest rates up to the market could grant commercial banks more influence over the rates.

Another senior official of the central bank, on condition of anonymity, said, “The interest rate is being somewhat controlled through devolvement. However, as the government needs to borrow from these sources, banks are demanding higher interest rates. Therefore, the central bank is using devolvement to keep the interest rate slightly down.”

He also mentioned that the interest rate of Treasury Bills and Bonds increased slightly in July compared to June.

Borrowing from commercial banks can cause liquidity crisis

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank’s Dhaka office, called money printing the opposite approach to controlling inflation.

“It is not the right time to comment on how the inflationary pressure will increase in the entire financial year due to the printing of money at the beginning of FY24. However, the government is on the same course at the beginning of the new financial year as it was in FY23. Nothing has changed here,” he said.

Borrowing money from commercial banks can lead to a liquidity crisis, Zahid said, “Borrowing from banks reduces the available money supply for lending to the private sector and this will create a crisis for businessmen. From that point of view, it is relatively easy to borrow from the central bank. Although the pressure of inflation increases on the consumers due to the borrowing.”

The huge circulation of new money caused the reserve money growth to surge to 10% this June, up from negative 0.3% in the same period last year. However, it was far lower compared to the monetary target of 14% set for the monetary policy of FY23. Though the central bank set no target for reserve money growth for the first six months of FY24, as they are trying to control the money circulation by interest rates.

The low reserve money growth is due to the central bank having withdrawn Tk1.41 lakh crore from the market by selling $13.58 billion in FY23.

According to the central bank data, net domestic asset growth was 16.17% year-on-year in May this year when net foreign asset growth was negative 15.28%.

The high growth in domestic assets is because the Bangladesh Bank is creating new money against government treasury bills and bonds, which will trigger inflation. While the negative growth of foreign assets is due to the massive dollar selling pressure which means the country is losing its capacity for foreign payment.

‘Inflationary pressure may increase’

Ahsan H Mansur of The Policy Research Institute said, “The inflationary pressure in the economy may increase due to devolvement. If Tk1 lakh crore is injected into the economy, it is transformed into Tk5 lakh crore, but it does not happen in a day. Devolvement that is being done now may take six months to 2-3 years to see its inflationary impact. That is, we will see in future the full impact of the amount of money printed in the last year to give loans to the government. People must bear the inflationary pressure due to this.”
The economist also advised the government to reduce unnecessary expenses.

‘Blame is convenient’

Sadiq Ahmed, vice chairman of the Policy Research Institute, said, “Bangladesh’s inflation continued to rise throughout FY2023 even as the global inflation rate fell sharply. Countries like the USA, Canada, EU, India, Thailand and Vietnam all experienced substantial declines in domestic inflation rates in the first half of 2023.  But it was still high at 9.74% in June in Bangladesh.”

“So, blaming the Russia-Ukraine war and global inflation for domestic inflation is politically convenient but not factually true,” Ahmed said.

He said countries that saw sharp declines in domestic inflation benefited from the reduction in global energy prices, but they also took sustained demand reduction measures through targeted increases in the domestic interest rates.

Since Bangladesh did not reduce demand and instead pushed demand growth through interest control and higher fiscal deficit, it did not experience a reduction in inflation despite the reductions in global energy prices and global inflation, Sadiq Ahmed added.

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Home textile suffers 32pc drop in exports

A combination of factors, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war-led sluggish demand, excess post-Covid inventory and a local gas-price hike, has significantly impacted the home textile sector in the country, industry insiders said.

The sector, which raked in $1.63 billion in the fiscal year 2021-22, experienced a staggering 32-percent decline in exports in the just-concluded fiscal year of 2022-23, according to official data.

The country’s earnings from home textile exports stood at $1.09 billion in the last fiscal year, showed Export Promotion Bureau data.

Pessimism looms among many home textile exporters who foresee no signs of improvement until next January.

This decline in exports follows two consecutive fiscal years of over 40 per cent growth, with fiscal year 2021 being heavily impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Exporters attribute the export nosedive to a substantial inventory of buyers resulting from extensive sourcing during and after the Covid-19 period.

In addition, the Russia-Ukraine war has contributed to the slowdown of demand in major markets, including the European Union. The suspension of business operations in Russia by global fashion giants such as H&M and IKEA has further compounded the challenges faced by the sector.

Home textile is the country’s third-largest foreign currency earner after ready-made garments (knit and woven) and leather goods. It bagged $1.13 billion in fiscal year 2021 (FY21).

Export earnings from the sector showed a declining trend, dropping 10.90 per cent to $758.91 million in fiscal year 2020, down from $851.72 million in FY19, according to data from the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB).

While talking to the FE, Md Rashed Mosharrof, executive director of Sales, Marketing and Operations at Zaber and Zubair (Home), said people stayed at home longer during the pandemic, leading to a surge in demand for home textiles, particularly bed items.

Then buyers placed huge orders. However, as economic activity resumed and people started venturing outside, demand declined, resulting in an excess stock for buyers, he explained.

Mosharrof said that the ongoing war-led uncertainties have contributed to higher oil and food prices, prompting consumers to prioritise essential items like food.

Besides, the recent 150 per cent increase in gas prices has negatively affected the sector, leading to a production cost rise of up to 7 per cent, Mr Mosharrof added.

“We now lagging behind in competition especially with India that can now offer a lower rate,” he said.

Z&Z Fabrics Ltd, a subsidiary of Noman Group, alone exports an estimated $200 million worth of home textile products annually. It is one of the largest home textile producers in South Asia, with a daily production capacity of 0.3 million metres of fabric and employing nearly 8,500 workers.

Industry insiders said that some factories, originally set up for export business, have shifted their production focus to the local market due to insufficient work orders.

Shahadat Hossain Sohel, chairman of the Bangladesh Terry Towel and Linen Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BTTLMEA), said that global home textile buyers have slowed down their orders for several reasons, including high inflation and interest rates in major markets.

“We have sufficient work orders until November last but now the situation is getting worse mostly due to gas price hike,” he said.

He, however, mentioned that most of the sourcing comes from federal purchases or government authorities in export destinations.

The BTTLMEA leader said some 40 home-textile factories are currently in operation.

According to the Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA), over a dozen home textile mills are registered with the association, with an annual production capacity of around 550 million metres.

The main exports in the home textile sector include bed sheets, bedcovers, pillow covers, cushion covers, curtains, rugs, quilts, kitchen aprons, gloves, napkins and tablecloths, mainly to countries in the European Union.

The products are also exported to the USA and Canada, according to the association.

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Internet banking transactions hit nearly Tk 50,000cr

Internet banking transactions reached a record high amount of nearly Tk 50,000 crore in May, signifying the enhanced cost and time savings and convenience enabled over visits to brick-and-mortar branches for a growing number of bank account holders.

The transactions soared 142 per cent year-on-year to Tk 49,930 crore, showed the latest Bangladesh Bank (BB) data.

On a month-on-month basis, it was a growth of 12 per cent.

This is also threefold the amount recorded in the whole of fiscal year 2014-15.

The all-time high also reflects customers increasingly switching to electronic fund transfers and banks focusing investments on developing technology to provide faster and hassle-free services.

“We see a spectacular increase in internet banking because it helps people do banking staying at home,” said Md Mezbaul Haque, executive director of the BB.

“We are promoting digital transactions and banks are also showing interest as going electronic is cheaper than conducting transactions through ATMs,” he said.

“Many banks did not have any mobile app. Now more than 40 banks have apps to facilitate customers in carrying out banking digitally,” he added.

Now customer literacy and awareness are needed as people are showing interest and banks are promoting electronic banking, said Haque.

To encourage digital banking, the central bank has extended regulatory support from time to time by increasing transaction limits for clients.

The rollout of Bangladesh Real Time Gross Settlement (BD-RTGS) and Bangladesh Electronic Funds Transfer Network (BEFTN) by the BB and increased use of smartphones also helped popularise digital banking, said bankers earlier.

There has been a massive growth in utility bill payments and mobile top-ups through digital banking, said Mohammad Ali, managing director and CEO of Pubali Bank Ltd.

“Paying utility bills was a hassle. Now many people pay bills through mobile financial services by transferring money from their bank accounts,” he said.

“People are switching to online transactions at lightning speed…People are paying electronically for their purchases too,” he said.

Pubali Bank Ltd, one of the oldest and largest banks, recorded an average growth of 63 per cent year-on-year in digital transactions over the last five years, he said.

Ali, however, said customers do still need to come to banks to process their cheques.

They will not need to come to banks if the central bank develops a unified system or app so that account holders can upload photos of their cheques for settlement electronically, he said.

Banks are introducing new products as digital banking is growing, said Emranul Huq, managing director and CEO of Dhaka Bank Ltd.

“The growth of digital banking has sped up as banks are becoming connected with mobile financial service (MFS) providers,” he said.

“Once customers used to transfer funds to MFS. Now deposits are also coming from MFS. This has become a big area,” he said.

Dhaka Bank Ltd has introduced nano deposits and registered an increase in the opening of accounts, he added.

On the risks of cyberattacks and fraud, Huq said banks were investing to build firewalls to ensure digital security and protect their systems.

The BB issued an ICT risk management guideline for banks, abiding by which will require banks to make a lot of investment, he said.

Customers’ literacy and awareness is also needed, he said.

Source: The Daily Star
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Trade with India in rupee, How much will Bangladesh benefit?

Bangladesh and India began settling cross-border trades in the Indian rupee (INR) last week, a development that has been hailed as a landmark for the growing bilateral commerce in general and for Bangladesh in particular.

Initially, the scope of making import payments would be limited to the equivalent of Bangladesh’s export earnings of around $2 billion from India.

This means it might not immediately give a boost to Bangladesh’s foreign currency reserve, whose level fell by about 30 per cent in the past one year owing to higher import bills against lower-than-expected export and remittance earnings.

As per new arrangements, Bangladeshi exporters will receive their proceeds in the rupee in the nostro accounts opened with ICICI Bank and State Bank of India (SBI). The proceeds will be used to facilitate Bangladesh’s import transactions with India.

Trade analysts describe the move as a welcome step, saying it would deepen trade ties between the two neighbours, reduce dependency on the US dollar, and cut the cost of business.

“Bangladesh has found a new currency to settle international trades and this will bring benefit in the future,” said Ahsan H Mansur, a noted economist.

Before the addition of the rupee to the list of currencies used to carry out cross-border trades, Bangladesh settled trades in the US dollar, the pound sterling, and the euro, with the American greenback dominating.

Mansur said the addition of the rupee will bring no major benefits immediately, especially when it comes to alleviating the pressure on the reserve.

“This is because Bangladesh will receive rupees instead of US dollars against export proceeds since India will make payments in their currency to settle imports as well.”

The trading arrangement will be beneficial for the businesses that import from India and export to the country. Besides, trade costs will be lower for them, said Mansur.

Mansur, also the executive director of the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh, a private think-tank, however, says local businesses may attract more customers which will raise Bangladesh’s exports to India.

Bangladesh’s scope to open letters of credit has been squeezed to some extent owing to the fall in the forex reserve.

The settlement of LCs in the rupee may solve the problem to some extent, Mansur said.

The growing trade in the rupee will help India make its currency a reserve currency, he added.

The US dollar, the euro, the Chinese renminbi, the Japanese yen, and the British pound sterling are the reserve currencies.

Prof Mustafizur Rahman, a trade analyst, also said that trading in the INR would not bring much impact on the reserve level as a certain volume of US dollars will neither be added to the reserve nor leave it.

He said some global brands that have a presence in India may continue to purchase goods from Bangladesh in the USD.

Rahman, also a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, said the risk facing the taka will still be there since the INR may fluctuate.

He suggested attracting more lines of credit and more foreign direct investments in the rupee from the neighbouring country.

“Then it will benefit our economy.”

Atiur Rahman, a former governor of the Bangladesh Bank, said the beginning of trade in the rupee is a very first but very important step for bilateral trade.

“If Bangladesh can increase its exports to India, the benefits of the mechanism will expand. So, Bangladesh needs to find out new avenues to export more to the neighbouring country.”

If India offers a new line of credit in the rupee and the loan is used in settling LCs regarding fuels, it can lessen the pressure on the forex reserves to some extent, he said.

The former governor suggested using UPAS (Usance Payable at Sight) LC to import products from India. “This will reduce costs and popularise the system.”

The BB rolled out UPAS LC, an import system carried out on the basis of buyers’ credit, in 2012.

“We are not going to replace the US dollar. Instead, we are supplementing it,” said Amit Kumar, country head of SBI.

He said the benefits of trade in the INR are the reduction of net demand for the US dollar, the lowering of costs stemming from currency conversions, and cutting the processing time needed to carry out trades.

Kumar said a market-based exchange rate is beneficial for Bangladesh.

“The taka has depreciated steeply against the US dollar in the last one year. The rupee has not witnessed such a fall. So, settling of trades is good for Bangladesh.”

The taka has depreciated by around 10 per cent against the INR in the past one year while it weakened by around 25 per cent against the USD.

According to the SBI official, trading in the INR would be cost-efficient since hedging will not be involved. On the other hand, trades in the US dollar involve costs related to currency hedging, he said.

The move comes as India pushes to make the rupee a global currency. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has already put in place a mechanism to settle international trade in the currency.

The central bank of India has allowed banks from 18 countries to make payments in the rupee. The countries include Sri Lanka, Israel, Russia, Germany, Singapore and the UK. Now, Bangladesh has been included in the list.

“India wants to make the rupee a tradable currency. So, the launch of trade settlements with Bangladesh in the rupee is a good initiative from their perspective,” said Mamun Rashid, a trade analyst.

He said the initiative is good but its effectiveness will depend on the private sector since exporters will decide whether they will accept their earnings in the rupee instead of the US dollar.

“In our previous experience with China, we saw the Chinese private sector prefer the US dollar instead of the renminbi. So, it is important to see how the private sector in India reacts.”

He said the rupee and the taka have not fluctuated against the US dollar at the same pace, so a higher depreciation of the Bangladeshi currency may work in its favour.

However, the rupee can also fluctuate, he said.

The losses stemming from the currency conversion for Bangladeshi traders might still be there despite using the rupee.

This is because if an Indian buyer enters into a deal with a seller from Bangladesh, the former will have to convert the rupees into the USD first. The Bangladeshi seller will get payments in the American currency and will convert them into the taka to use them.

Now, Indian importers will not face such a conversion since the rupee will be used during the transaction, while it remains the same for Bangladeshi companies. For them, only the currency changes.

Bangladesh’s annual imports from India stand at around $20 billion. So, the demand for the US dollar will be there among importers.

Md Fazlul Hoque, a former president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers & Exporters Association, says he is not sure how the mechanism will reduce the pressure on the forex reserve.

He said most of the exporters except those in the agro-based sector are dependent on global markets for raw materials. And they will continue to need US dollars to purchase raw materials from other countries.

The central bank will have to be careful so that this group of exporters can’t receive payments in the INR against their shipments to India since the reserve will fall if such happens, he said.

Source: The Daily Star
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Robi to borrow $55m from Malaysian parent Axiata Group

The loan is being taken as a precautionary measure to safeguard against any potential impact from the ongoing dollar crisis in the country

Infographic: TBS

Infographic: TBS

Revenue breakdown in Jan-Mar 2023

  • Tk2,347cr from mobile services including voice, non-voice traffic, data, subscriptions, and connection fees
  • Tk131cr from interconnect services
  • Tk2.65cr from sale of devices 
  • Tk29.4cr from commissions, IT professional services, and digital services 

The country’s second-largest mobile network operator Robi Axiata Limited will receive a $55 million shareholder loan facility from its parent company Axiata Group, a Malaysian multinational telecommunications conglomerate.

In a stock exchange filing on Monday, Robi stated that it would secure the fund for a period of three years.

According to officials at the company, the loan is being taken as a precautionary measure to safeguard against any potential impact from the ongoing dollar crisis in the country.

Robi is not the first company to receive such a loan. Previously, Berger Paints also obtained a loan in foreign currency from its foreign partners.

In the disclosure made to the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), the telecom operator stated that it did not need to pledge any assets as security and did not create any charge with the Registrar of Joint Stock Companies and Firms in relation to this loan agreement.

The interest rate of the loan will be based on the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR), which is 1.2%.

The interest rate of this loan will be calculated by adding 1.2% to the SOFR, according to an official of the company.

Mohammed Shahedul Alam, company secretary and chief corporate and regulatory officer at Robi, told The Business Standard, “We will need foreign currency for future expansion, especially network expansion. So, we have made an agreement to take a loan from our foreign partner. We will use this loan when we need dollars.”

“This facility has been kept so that our expansion work is not hindered due to the country’s dollar crisis,” he added.

Robi got listed on the stock exchanges in 2020. Axiata Group Berhad owns 61.82% of Robi, Bharti Airtel of India holds 28.18%, and the general public holds the remaining 10%.

In April this year, Berger Paints Bangladesh Ltd decided to enter into an agreement with its foreign parent company, J&N Investments (Asia) Limited, to avail $60 million in loans.

The loan will facilitate the opening of letters of credit for raw material imports by Berger Paints and will be disbursed in phases based on business requirements.

Sazzad Rahim Chowdhury, director and chief financial officer at Berger Paints Bangladesh, had earlier told TBS, “The move comes as a part of our commitment to lend a hand to the country’s foreign currency reserve.”

“We will build a foreign currency reserve out of the loan, to pay our import bills,” he said, adding that the shareholder’s loan would help smooth the company’s imports as well.

In 2020, Robi borrowed $95 million from the International Finance Corporation for the purchase of telecommunication equipment, the payment of spectrum renewal fees, TAX, and VAT.

Meanwhile, the country’s gross foreign exchange reserves dropped by $6.44 billion to $23.56 billion in the Bangladesh Bank’s new reserve calculation, published on 13 July, as per the formula suggested by the International Monetary Fund.

The gross reserves were $29.92 billion as per the previous calculation, according to the central bank data posted on its website.

The new gross reserves can cover imports for nearly four months, as per the recent import trend.

Moody’s, in its latest report, downgraded Bangladesh’s credit rating due to heightening external vulnerability and liquidity risks amid deterioration in foreign exchange reserves.

The global rating agency forecast that Bangladesh’s gross foreign reserves might remain below $30 billion for the next two to three years, with an import coverage of around three months.

A higher outflow of foreign funds than inflow put pressure on the country’s balance of payments, with the financial account turning into a deficit.

Robi financials

Robi Axiata Limited has reported growth in both its revenue and profit in the January to March quarter of 2023, compared to the same quarter of the previous fiscal year.

According to its unaudited financial statement for the March quarter, its mobile services revenue, including voice, non-voice traffic, data, subscriptions, and connection fees, surged by 16% to Tk2,347 crore. And, its net profit grew by 5.44% to Tk42 crore.

Its interconnect services increased by 13% to Tk131 crore.

However, its revenue from the sale of devices declined by 73% to Tk2.65 crore, and other revenue like commission, IT professional services, and digital services revenue declined by 14% to Tk29.40 crore.

Robi’s consolidated earnings per share stood at Tk0.08, net asset value per share at Tk12.90, and net operating cash flow per share at Tk1.83 at the end of March 2023.

As of May 2023, the company had a total of 5.59 crore subscribers, up from 5.44 crore in December 2022.

The company raised Tk523 crore from the stock market through an initial public offering in 2020.

Its shares have been stuck at the floor price of Tk30 each since August last year at the DSE.

The company’s share price rose to a high of Tk76.80 after the listing.

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New long-term USD loan facility for exporters, other firms

The central bank yesterday unveiled a long-term financing facility for private sector firms, mainly export-oriented manufacturers, to help them borrow in US dollars to purchase equipment and services needed to run sustainable operations.

Under the Bangladesh Bank-Long Term Financing Facility, the loan, which could be as high as $10 million, will be offered in the US currency, according to a guideline.

Widespread opportunity for medium-and-longer term financing was inadequate in the country a decade ago and the constraint still persists.

And the financing of businesses for shorter-than-required tenure is creating a funding mismatch. As a result, the banking sector is finding it difficult to mitigate the long-term funding gap in both local and foreign currencies.

Recently, the BB completed the long-term financing facility (LTFF) programme, which gave access to long-term funds in foreign currencies to capital-intensive manufacturing firms.

The success and popularity of the LTFF prove that there exists a huge demand in the market for a sustainable longer-term credit facility, the guideline said.

So, the central bank has decided to continue providing long-term financing to private sector firms, mainly export-oriented manufacturing enterprises, so that they can adopt sustainable means of production and augment competitive advantage in the global value chains.

The financing will be given through banks, known as participating financial institutions, authorised to deal with foreign exchange.

Among other qualifications, PFIs must have a minimum rating of three or better CAMELS ratings determined by the BB, must have less than 8 per cent non-performing loan, and meet the minimum regulatory capital adequacy requirement to be eligible to participate in the fund.

Problem banks or banks with large financial scams or those with an observer or coordinator placed by the central bank are ineligible, according to the guideline.

Refinancing from the fund against the loans that had been disbursed before January 1, 2021 will not be permissible.

A borrower can apply for BB-LTFF for any amount not exceeding a maximum threshold limit of $5 million through a single PFI and for any amount not exceeding a maximum threshold limit of $10 million under syndicated financing through two or more PFIs.

The fund can be used to procure capital machinery, meet expenses related to their installation, and expand or set up new manufacturing industries.

The purchase of ocean-going vessels and specialised transport vehicles supporting the transportation of goods manufactured in the country and establishing businesses that comply with environmental and social standards will be facilitated.

Financing will not be provided to any loans that result in direct economic, social or environmental impacts through land acquisition, involuntary resettlement, impact on indigenous people, and loss of income sources or means of livelihood.

The maturity of the loans will be three to 10 years, including the grace period. The grace period will be determined by PFIs based on the projected timing of the cash inflows of individual projects.

The grace period will not be more than one year.

An indicative pricing range of 180-day average SOFR plus 0.25 to 1.25 per cent would be applicable to the PFIs.

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a benchmark interest rate for dollar-denominated derivatives and loans that replaced the London Interbank Offered Rate.

PFIs will determine their own loan interest rates to borrowers considering their cost of borrowing and operational expenses, plus a reasonable risk-adjusted spread and profit margin to be in the range of 1 per cent to 2 per cent above the cost of funds.

Source: The Daily Star
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Govt borrowing from domestic sources climbs 16%

The government’s borrowing from domestic banks and non-banking sources was 16 per cent higher in the just-concluded fiscal year as it had to rely on debts to finance public expenditures amid lower revenue collections.

The government took Tk 133,800 crore in loans from domestic sources in 2022-23, excluding the net sales of national savings certificates, according to data from the Bangladesh Bank. It was Tk 115,216 crore in 2021-22.

Of the sum, 73 per cent, or Tk 97,684 crore, came from the central bank in FY23, which may contribute to stoking inflationary pressures.

“This will create demand as the central bank is printing money to lend to the government. This fresh money is coming to the market. This will stoke inflation,” said Ahsan H Mansur, executive director of the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh.

If the government borrowed from banks, there would not have much effect on inflation, he said.

According to the economist, there is concern about the composition of debts.

“And the concern remains the same for the new fiscal year as the government keeps borrowing. The main reason is the failure to collect required amount of revenue. We are already seeing the consequence of that.”

For the 11th consecutive year, the National Board of Revenue missed its tax target in FY23 in the face of slowing growth of collections amidst economic slowdowns and ambitious goals set by the government. The collection grew only 8 per cent in the year.

The government planned to borrow Tk 140,425 crore from domestic sources in FY23. And it managed to could keep debts within the plan although borrowing from the banking system exceeded its projection by 7 per cent year-on-year, BB data showed.

The government’s debt from banks stood at around Tk 123,000 crore, up from Tk 115,425 crore. And in the first four days of the new fiscal year, it took Tk 3,538 crore as loans from banks.

Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue, said the continued borrowing shows that the government’s fiscal space is shrinking.

Fiscal space refers to the financial resources available to a government for policy initiatives through the budget and related decisions.

“The government’s fiscal position is strained and it appears that it has no alternative but to borrow,” she said, adding that the government would require an increased amount of fund in 2023-24 since the size of the national budget has increased.

The government plans to borrow about Tk 258,000 crore from local and foreign sources in FY24 to implement the Tk 761,785 crore national budget.

Of the amount, it wants to secure 60 per cent from domestic sources, mainly banks.

Fahmida said banks are already in liquidity stress and high borrowing from the sector might affect the credit flow to the private sector and investments.

Mansur, also a former economist at the International Monetary Fund, said the government might borrow a higher amount from the central bank to finance the budget in order to avoid increased debt servicing.

“By borrowing from the central bank, it will pay a low interest rate. And ultimately, the cost of loan will be zero as the earnings of the central bank will go to the state coffer.”

On the other hand, if the government borrows from banks, it would require to pay a higher interest rate and the overall interest rate in the market would go up that would affect businesses.

“It appears that the government is not willing to dishearten businesses. But the irony is that it is the common people who will pay for higher inflation.”

 

Source: The Daily Star. 

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Imports of cement clinker, stones soar amidst construction boom

In contrast to a slump in imports, especially luxury goods, due to import curbs amid the prevailing dollar crisis, there has been a 5% rise in the import of cement clinker through Chattogram port during fiscal 2022-23, maintaining its position as the leading imported commodity.

Apart from cement clinker, broken or crushed stones – an essential material used in the construction sector – registered an impressive 80% increase in ports in the past fiscal year, according to Chattogram Customs House.

Industry insiders attribute this growth in imports of these items to the flourishing construction industry in the country and the government’s extensive infrastructure development projects.

Also on the list of import goods which saw an uptick in import in FY23 is high-speed diesel, which is normally used as a fuel in medium and high-speed compression ignition engines in commercial vehicles, stationary diesel engines, locomotives, pumps, etc.

Data obtained from Chattogram Customs House indicates that the import of cement clinker rose by 7.74 lakh tonnes to reach 1.77 crore tonnes in FY23, resulting in a revenue increase of Tk381 crore for the country’s premier customs station.

Broken or crushed stones and high-speed diesel imports saw an upsurge of 53.6 lakh tonnes and 11.8 lakh tonnes, respectively, in the previous year. Revenue collections from these two products also rose significantly, amounting to Tk626 crore and Tk2,949 crore, respectively.

Zahir Uddin Ahmed, vice president of the Bangladesh Cement Manufacturers Association and managing director of Confidence Cement, however, said the import of cement clinker has been less compared to the demand due to the dollar crisis. Had the situation been normal, the import of clinker would have been higher, he added.

“The infrastructure development of the country is constantly increasing. Mega development projects are being implemented. Therefore, the import of cement clinker is increasing every year.”

Demand for cement clinker increases 7%-8% annually, thanks to a burgeoning construction sector and implementation of government mega projects in the country, he added.

Customs data show that the other four products that made into the list of the five highest imported goods in terms of volume in FY23 besides cement clinker are broken or crushed stones (1.22 crore tonnes), slag sand (51.27 lakh tonnes), high-speed diesel oil (45.44 lakh tonnes), and coal (42.26 lakh tonnes).

Meanwhile, the five import goods which yielded the highest revenue in the last fiscal year are high-speed diesel oil with Tk6,762 crore, other fuel oils Tk4,184 crore, cement clinker Tk2,740 crore, broken or crushed stones Tk1,312 crore, and petroleum oil with Tk1,132 crore.

In terms of quantity, the top five products imported through Chittagong port in fiscal 2021-22 were cement clinker (1.69 crore tonnes), VAT-registered manufactured raw materials (1 crore tonnes), broken or crushed stones (69 lakh tonnes), ferrous waste and scrap (49.8 lakh tonnes), and other fuel oil furnace oil (45.6 lakh tonnes).

Regarding revenue, the top five products in FY22 were other fuel oil and furnace oil (Tk5,728 crore), high-speed diesel oil (Tk3,814 crore), cement clinker (Tk2,353 crore), hot rolled (Tk1,242 crore), and palm oil (Tk1,203 crore), according to Chattogram customs.

It is worth mentioning that cement clinker was also the most imported product in FY21, with 1.88 crore tonnes being imported through Chattogram port. This was followed by broken or crushed stones (93.72 lakh tonnes), manufactured raw materials (58 lakh tonnes), natural gas (57 lakh tonnes), and slag sand (45.5 lakh tonnes).

In FY21, the highest revenue-generating products were high-speed diesel oil (Tk3889 crore), other fuel oil furnace oil (Tk2,703 crore), natural gas (Tk2,400 crore), cement clinker (Tk2,282 crore), and palm oil (Tk1,068 crore).

Chattogram port handles approximately 92% of the country’s import and export trade. Chattogram Customs House is responsible for the customs clearance of goods arriving through Chittagong Port.

Additionally, goods are imported through various land ports, including Mongla Port, Payra Port, and Dhaka Airport. These goods are cleared through the respective customs houses or customs stations associated with each port.

According to data from the National Board of Revenue, apart from Chattogram port, cement clinker is also imported through other ports.

In the January-June period of 2023, 1,144.86 tonnes of imported cement clinker, valued at Tk7,481.4 crore, were released through Chattogram Customs House, Mongla Customs House, Dhaka Customs House, and Dhaka Bond Commissionerate.

In 2022, total 2,328.17 crore tonnes of cement clinker worth Tk13,407 crore were imported through these customs stations.

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Leather footwear exporters can now apply for over 5% discounts

Exporters can now apply to the Discount Committee of the central bank for more than 5% discounts against the export of leather footwear goods.

The Foreign Exchange Policy Department of the Bangladesh Bank issued a circular in this regard on Sunday.

The move will help exporters offset the loss of export proceeds they often incur by offering buyers discounts of more than 5% prescribed in the Guidelines for Foreign Exchange Transactions.

A senior official of the central bank told The Business Standard that all cases involving discount claims made by buyers due to document discrepancies, short shipment, conservative arrest, or quality issues concerning the shipment of readymade garments, leather, and leather goods should be forwarded to the Discount Committee of the central bank for review.

The committee will approve the discount rate considering the situation, the official said.

“Leather footwear exporters were previously unable to provide additional discounts to their foreign customers. However, the new guidelines issued by the central bank have now allowed this sector to apply for discounts of more than 5%,” added the official.

Source: The Business Standard
asdAS

Fareast Islami Life Ins facing steep debt – Unable to clear claims for liquidity crunch

Firoza Begum, a resident of Shalmara village in Bhelabari union under Aditmari upazila of Lalmonirhat, opened a 12-year term policy with Fareast Islami Life Insurance Company some 15 years ago.

With the policy having matured about three years back, Firoza has regularly visited the company’s local office since then in a bid to get back her Tk 80,000 deposit.

“But I am not getting my money,” said the 52-year-old housekeeper.

Like Firoza, around 3,000 policyholders of Fareast Islami have been struggling to get claims amounting to around Tk 19.58 crore due to a liquidity crunch in the company, according to an official of the insurer.

“I am tired of going to the insurance company,” she added.

Rafiqul Islam, who works as a day labourer in Uttar Saptana village under Lalmonirhat sadar upazila, said his life insurance policy also matured three years ago but he is yet to get his funds back.

“I often visit the company’s office to get my Tk 40,000. I need the money as my wife is sick but I cannot afford the treatment,” he added.

On condition of anonymity, an official of Fareast Islami’s Lalmonirhat branch, said they have 21,000 policyholders in the district.

With about 3,000 of these clients’ policies having matured, many of them flock to the company’s local office every day in a bid to get back their deposit.

“However, the head office is not providing refunds,” the official added.

Abdul Hai, head of Fareast Islami’s Lalmonirhat branch, said policyholders are not getting their money back due to the company’s lack of liquidity.

“It is not possible to say when the claims will be settled,” Hai said, adding that he even stopped coming to office on a regular basis to avoid the mounting pressure from claimants.

Sheikh Kabir Hossain, chairman of Fareast Islami, said the company is “sick” as it owes a lot of money while its owners are in jail.

The government had set up a new board of directors to restore Fareast Islami to its previous position, but they have not made much progress so far.

“Due to this sickness, it is not possible to pay back debts at the required rate,” said Hossain, who is also president of the Bangladesh Insurance Association.

Another reason is that new clients are not coming to open policies anymore as the company has gotten a bad reputation, meaning that there is a lack of incoming funds to clear the debt, he added.

Jahangir Alam, spokesperson of the Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (Idra), said Fareast Islami was issued several directives to pay outstanding claims.

In addition, their activities are being monitored, he added.

As per unaudited data of the Idra for 2022, Fareast Islami currently owes Tk 4,559 crore in claims.

Of this amount, the company has settled just Tk 970 crore, or 21.29 per cent, of the total claims.

In April 2021, the Idra appointed Shiraz Khan Basak and Company, a chartered accountant firm in Bangladesh, to conduct a special audit on Fareast Islami.

The auditor then submitted a report to the Idra in May 2022.

As per the report, Tk 2,367 crore has been embezzled from the company. Apart from this, accounting irregularities amounting to Tk 432 crore were detected.

Nazrul Islam and MA Khaleque, former chairmen of Fareast Islami, Hemayet Ullah, former chief executive officer, and former directors and senior officials were found involved in the embezzlement.

The money was embezzled in mainly two ways: purchase of land at prices higher than the market value and bank loans availed mortgaging the company’s Mudaraba Term Deposit Receipt (MTDR).

The MTDR is a profit bearing account based on the Mudaraba concept that offers returns on money deposited for a fixed period of time.

In September 2021, the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission dissolved the company’s board of directors. That same month, the then chief executive officer, Hemayet Ullah, was sacked by the Idra.

At present, Fareast Islami operates through independent directors.

 

Source: The Daily Star